Thursday, March 27, 2014

5 percent at 40

That's the statistical probability that every young woman should be told at 18:
What Jill doesn’t understand is that her fertility is not subject to whim or wishful thinking. Her chances of getting pregnant decline rapidly after 30. By age 40, less than 5 out of every 100 women will be successful at conception. When the Jills of this world decide they want children at 36 or 38 or 42, they enter a long, often fruitless quest for safe pregnancy and childbirth.
Are you in the top five percent of anything now? Then why do you think you will be then... and that's your chances of having just one child. Marry younger. Start sooner. You can always continue your career later.

As for men, make it a mantra. Five percent at forty. If a woman says she wants to have children "someday" , that should be the immediate response. Five percent at forty.

46 comments:

GF Dad said...

I'm confused, Vox. On the one hand, you have cautioned men about having children in today's divorce oriented environment and yet you encourage a 5% at forty mantra?

One of God's purposes for the family was to paint the picture of Christ and His church and another was procreation. If you've got to hammer into her head, "5% @ 40", the love relationship part is screwed up, too. If you have to use the mantra, she's the wrong woman.

Booch Paradise said...

@GF Dad
Exactly. It's a rule of thumb to weed out the wrong women.

cailcorishev said...

I knew the odds were bad, but I didn't think they were that bad, and I was right. They misrepresented the study a bit. It's 5% per cycle at 40, not 5% ever. If I'm figuring right, that means if you try for 12 straight months, your odds should rise to 72%.

Still not good, though, and dropping fast. Combine that with the increased chance of complications for her or the baby, and it starts to look pretty risky, especially if she's never had children before.

Recently I spotted a pretty girl starting to show up alone at church, and made some quiet inquiries. Turns out she's 38. (I honestly thought she looked younger, maybe 30, or I wouldn't have bothered asking. I'm terrible at guessing ages.) So if I introduced myself, and things went really well and proceeded quickly, we might be married in time to start trying to procreate shortly before her 40th birthday. I just mentally checked her off the list.

Matamoros said...

GF Dad: If you've got to hammer into her head, "5% @ 40", the love relationship part is screwed up, too. If you have to use the mantra, she's the wrong woman.

Not necessarily. People can change. Many women realize they have been sold a rather shoddy bill of goods, and work to be a good woman. Just like men who take the red pill and change their intents and behavior.

Just needs to be vetted, and watched closely.

cailcorishev said...

People can change.

True, but the point here isn't whether she's a good woman or not, but whether she can bear children if that's what a man wants (and there's very little reason for a man to marry if children aren't in the mix). It's not about her morals; it's about her eggs. She can be a wonderful woman, but if she's pushing 40, there's a significant chance you won't get children, and even if things go well you're not likely to get more than one or two.

The other point is that if she's younger and saying "someday," you'd better nail down what "someday" means, because if it means "oh, I'll start thinking about that when I hit 35ish," you're back to the same problem.

SarahsDaughter said...

If you have to use the mantra, she's the wrong woman.

That is if you fail to acknowledge that a woman's words rarely match her actions. One woman close to me swore from a very young age she was never having children, didn't want them, no way, no how. Yet when she accidentally became pregnant and miscarried the baby she mourned deeply. Her ex-husband, knowing she never wanted children, couldn't understand what her problem was, to him she got what she wanted. They were divorced within a year - because he was so insensitive.

b1bae96e-6447-11e3-b6bb-000f20980440 said...

If I'm figuring right, that means if you try for 12 straight months, your odds should rise to 72%.

You aren't. For this calculation its easier to go about probability the other way. You have a 95% chance at not getting pregnant and you run that risk every month for 12 months. so 0.95^12 = .54 chance of not getting pregnant. So you only have a 46% chance at conceiving at 40 with trying for a year.

However that is conception only. You also run the a much hire rate of auto aborting the babies you do conceive, and a dramatic increase in Down Syndrome owing to stale eggs.

Considering the way we are required by state law to bubble wrap our children and always provide them with adult supervision 24/7 for 8-10 years the way we treat other aspects of child development is kind of crazy.

Studies show 2-parent households are substantially better for the kids. Why isn't it illegal to divorce with minor children outside of out right physical abuse?

Studies constantly show that children born to women over 35 have significantly higher health risks, and health risks which cause the state a lot of money, why do we allow this?

Studies constantly show that women who are stressed and don't get enough sunlight while pregnant lead to unhealthier babies, why do we tell them its okay to work particularly tedious desk jobs, yet tell them they cannot have a a couple glasses of wine a week?

Laguna Beach Fogey said...

Is it that young women don't understand the realities of declining fertility, or that they simply don't want children?

cailcorishev said...

You aren't. For this calculation its easier to go about probability the other way.

Oops, I knew that, but I missed the 5 and used .9 instead of .95. Thanks for correcting me.

cailcorishev said...

LBF, I think it's both. They don't understand the reality because no one's telling them about it -- in fact, they're routinely shown examples of women conceiving late in life to encourage them not to worry about it. They also don't want children -- not yet, anyway.

From a man's perspective, if there were something I was sure I wanted someday (let's say a nice house with a big yard) but I didn't want it at 20 because I wasn't sure where my life would take me (my work might take me far away, or I might get different ideas about what kind of house and neighborhood I wanted) I might think 40 would be a good age to put that off until. By 40, I'd expect to know where I'm going and be ready to settle down somewhere.

I think most young women today see kids the same way -- they do want them, but right now they'd get in the way of other things and reduce their options too much. If you've been taught that you can choose to have kids at 40 as easily as you can choose to buy your first house then, why not put them off?

dalrock said...

"If I'm figuring right, that means if you try for 12 straight months, your odds should rise to 72%."

You aren't. For this calculation its easier to go about probability the other way. You have a 95% chance at not getting pregnant and you run that risk every month for 12 months. so 0.95^12 = .54 chance of not getting pregnant. So you only have a 46% chance at conceiving at 40 with trying for a year.


That fits with the chart here: http://www.babycenter.com/0_chart-the-effect-of-age-on-fertility_6155.bc

Laguna Beach Fogey said...

Cail, yes I would agree. Camille Paglia published a piece a few weeks ago in which she accused the sex ed establishment of failing to tell girls about the realities of fertility. I've met a few young women in recent months who've mentioned to me they don't want children. I don't put much stock in the words of capricious young females, but it does make me wonder if having children figures much in the future of young women these days, or if, as you say, it does and they're just putting them off until later.

cailcorishev said...

It'd be interesting to poll a bunch of college freshman girls: "What are the chances that a 40-year-old woman will be able to conceive if she tries every cycle for a year?" I bet their average answer would be closer to 90% than to 46%.

b1bae96e-6447-11e3-b6bb-000f20980440 said...

Camille Paglia published a piece a few weeks ago in which she accused the sex ed establishment of failing to tell girls about the realities of fertility.

Its not even a failure, they flat out lie. The consensus among empowered women is there is virtually no difference between 20 and 30, and there is only a small fall off between 30 and 35. The evidence clearly demonstrates that you lose nearly 1/3rd of your fertility between 20 and 30, and then roughly half between 30 and 40.

The interesting thing about the pharmacy industry is that you can figure out the type of people by looking at what sells. The Lincoln Park area of Chicago has a lot of 30 something professionals. The pharmacies in the area make bank on fertility treatment drugs.

SarahsDaughter said...

Is it that young women don't understand the realities of declining fertility, or that they simply don't want children?

I posted the link on my FB page, a lady 10 years my junior had this to say: "It's amazing to me how little of this information is known. I know that I learned more of this when we first started trying to get pregnant than any other time."

Considering how many childless, single ladies shared this essay on FB a few weeks ago, One would have to conclude it's men's fault, duh!: I'm Heartbroken Over a Man I've Never Met

"Yes," I reply as the server pours much-needed coffee in my cup. "I do. I always wanted to have children, but I just haven't met the right guy." We haven't even ordered breakfast and the conversation has already turned to eggs. Somehow my fertility is always on the menu.

"How old are you?" Stephanie asks, all business.

"Forty-two," I say, hoping she knows that I get what that means as far as my fertility goes.

ajw308 said...

Cail, 5% per cycle is 95% not getting pregnant. Raise 0.95 that to the 12th power and you get 54% odds not getting pregnant in 12 months. That's less than betting odds.

LP 999/Eliza said...

Agreed. More than likely if I were a man, the immediate response to someday is to walk. As a woman who is aging, motherhood passed me by and I take full responsibility for that failure. But something still disturbs me on some irrational esoteric vibe, all I feel in my womb is a spirit of defiance.

My poor mom fixed me up to have lunch with one of her freinds' sons.

This was not my Finn, no way near what I call a good coffee thing. This was not even a friendly meet up, this was a manner to point out that I must do $ X and $ Y for mom. The event was about mothers not him or I. Anyways, after being insulted or negged for my hand made coat. I quickly shifted the miserable meet up to family and if he had any children and he said that he never intends on speaking to me again b/c I;ll be 34, he met me only to shut the mothers up. When asked howthings went, I said fine.

Again, while the Finn, Texan and others neg me, their negs are something I can glean from, this man's negs were cruel. Losing my points here but the bottom line is that his choice of women are only 18 to 24 for child bearing. This is for good reasons, the older the woman the more chances of problems she'll have. Also, the younger the woman is to bear children is easier to recover from. At 33 nearing 34 recovery plus motherhood looks like something for better women.

ajw308 said...

Dalrock shows that you should read all the comments before posting...

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The Unreal Woman said...

Conversely, fertility begets fertility. If you start having kids younger, it's easier to have them as you age, and you have older children available to help out, possibly even teenaged older children. Plus, if you start before 30 and especially before 25, you have energy and recovery ability to deal with infants that is simply not there in your 30s, 40s and 50s, no matter how fit and active you are. Men know this, they talk all the time about how they are very fit in their 40s/50s/60s, but it's nothing like when they were 23. Yet an alarming number of women seem to not realize having babies is the female equivalent. You just can't power through the same way as you age.

Marissa said...

One woman close to me swore from a very young age she was never having children, didn't want them, no way, no how.

That used to be me, until I met the person I'm about to marry, who explicitly stated he wanted to marry and have children (with me). Folks, some (if not most) women are herd animals, even the ones that think they're special (like I thought I was). How you raise them and who they interact with has a whole lot of influence on how they think, especially on these controversial/taboo topics. I know most of you know this. But I was never personally prepared to even think I was going to be a mother or expect to have children. It was not a thought implanted in my mind as a child or young woman by anyone around me (certainly not the schools I was shoved into for 8 hours a day). So I went around telling everyone who mentioned it that I'd never get married and never have children. What's fortunate is my biological clock started ticking in coincidence with meeting a marriage-and-children-minded man. I realize now I could have ended up childless and alone at 40...a terrifying thought, no matter what the "empowerment" harridans try to say otherwise.

jimmy-jimbo said...

I find it troubling that women who get married don't want to have children. The whole idea of marriage is to start a life. A life means kids. Marriage shouldn't mean life is getting used to marriage before deciding on having kids. However, I guess this is the least of her problems. The man has to contend with both a childless woman and/or a woman who had kids and wants to divorce him frivolously. It is a bad situation all around.

"They were divorced within a year - because he was so insensitive."

Huh? This is amazing rationalization. He is not in her shoes. How he feels is irrelevant. It was irrelevant from the beginning since she made the irrational decision to not have a baby, and then decide to have one, and to finally miscarry. Her husband was never in position to feel anything about these life changing situations.

"a woman's words rarely match her actions"

I am presuming that she continued the practice after miscarrying. Thus the failure of her marriage. The marriage was never going to work.

jimmy-jimbo said...

Speaking from experience. Don't marry if you don't want kids. Just live together. Even as a Christian, it is mistake to marry especially when you don't want kids. It is wrong to mislead a woman or a man. Living together is the alternative because there is the presumption that it won't lead to kids. Or possibly that it is a casual relationship that should be treated as such. If you later find out that the woman is pregnant, of course you should marry, but it should be done quickly at the courthouse.

If you're a man who wants kids, RUN if the woman you're dating states precisely that she doesn't want kids. It is likely that she won't change her mind. This has happened to me in my first marriage. She never did change her mind contrary to the notion that "a woman's words rarely match her actions". The thing about this mantra is that her words match her actions RIGHT AT THIS MOMENT. You can't plan around this. Until she changes her mind, you must contend with the wait, and it can be a long wait.

It can also backfire in the opposite direction. Her actions are unspoken. She can suddenly decide to pick up other hobbies without warning to fill her time, thus delay any action on having children. Like... decide on a law degree. Nothing happened in my case, but she wasted 3 years pursuing a law degree that she later changed her mind about and dispensed it with $20,000 in debt and nothing to show for it. And we are no longer married.

Just don't marry a woman that says she doesn't want kids. You won't have a future together.

GF Dad said...

jimmy-jumbo, you're absolutely right and that's what I was trying to say. If you keep in mind the idea that there is an abundance of women, you don't have to settle for a woman who doesn't want kids and you don't have to play the game of trying to figure out whether she really means what she's saying. Life is too short to put up with that crap.

SarahsDaughter said...

@Marissa,
That used to be me, until I met the person I'm about to marry, who explicitly stated he wanted to marry and have children (with me).

Isn't it funny how much we'll change when a man we're attracted to takes his lead?

I realize now I could have ended up childless and alone at 40...a terrifying thought, no matter what the "empowerment" harridans try to say otherwise.

Our first child was completely unplanned when I was 21, as was the second, after that our thought was to have as many children as God would give us, thankfully we had one more. I stopped being able to get pregnant at 30 - a very common age for women to think about trying to get pregnant. I am very thankful we sucked at birth control when we were first married.

Eric said...

I don't put much stock in the words of capricious young females, but it does make me wonder if having children figures much in the future of young women these days, or if, as you say, it does and they're just putting them off until later.

I've lost count of the number of women I know who swore at age twenty they'd never have children but are going through painful and expensive fertility treatments in their late thirties. They may have made the decision at age twenty to be childless, but things change.

SQT said...

The risk of birth defects also goes up significantly with age. My husband's cousin (who has 10 kids!) had her last one at 41 and was told by the doctor that the odds of the child having Down's Syndrome was 1 in 4. I don't think that would have affected her decision to have the child but it is good to know what you might have in store if you wait to have kids. I also think the rising rate of autism may be the result of older parents.

I have known so many women who had to go through IVF to try to conceive after 35. I have already started talking to my 13-year-old daughter about this because I don't want her to fall into the I have all the time in the world trap and end up childless.

APL said...

LP 999/Eliza : "Again, while the Finn, Texan and others neg me, their negs are something I can glean from, this man's negs were cruel."

'Negging' probably isn't necessary for most women over 30. Many men lack calibration, or operating according to 'the manual' lack finesse. Like this :)

LP 999/Eliza : "Losing my points here but the bottom line is that his choice of women are only 18 to 24 for child bearing."

My long standing SO is five years my senior, she claims she had no thoughts of children, but that was probably an untruth. Looking back, I see the pattern of my life conforms to the template! Anyway, we are now twenty three years on and two very healthy sons later.

PS. She has taken care of her figure and damn! can she cook.

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Positive Thinker said...

Two things, I know a couple of women who have been forced to use IVF in their early 30s because some test found they only had a limited number of eggs left and, if left to chance, if they didn't get pregnant by 35, it would have been all over for them. To their credit, they started trying at around 30, but their case reminds me about why even waiting until 30 can be too late.
The other thing is this site has an interesting article about a TV commercial in Denmark concerned about the declining birth rate. I can't quite work out how the birth rate could be so low in a country with one of the most equality minded attitudes on the planet... I might be pondering that for a while...

Marissa said...

Sarah's Daughter, you're so right, and I'm happy it worked out for you. Being bad at birth control is a virtue :)

I wonder if the lower average age of menstruation is also causing women to be less fertile in their mid to late 30s (aside from the basic biology).

JCclimber said...

LP, those aren't negs. I don't blame you as a woman for not understanding the art of the neg, in fact I think it is extremely difficult for a woman to be able to fully understand negs. And that is why real negs are so effective.

Those were just plain straight up insults. Take my word for it. A neg would mean he was actively and purposefully trying to seduce you or win you over.

JCclimber said...

I think even the 46% is vastly overstating the odds of conceiving at age 40.

Here is why: Every single woman at age 40 in America who is trying to conceive, is desperately trying every trick available to her and her resources. IVF, ICSI, and so forth. Factoring in those 100s of thousands of women, who are continually using all tricks possible, and STILL are only achieving a 5% success rate......
..

....the way this is phrased makes it seem like the 40 year old women are just making sure their partner is getting in some good loving time when they are ovulating. If you are on good speaking terms with women in those situations,,,,uh uh. They aren't just laying back and thinking of England a couple times a month.

And has already been pointed out, those women actively trying to conceive at 40 WHO ARE TRYING EVERY TRICK IN THE BOOK TO GET PREGNANT, only 5% conceive, and between 35% and 50% of those conceptions end in spontaneous abortion.

When I got married to a 33 year old, we had an appointment at a top notch fertility clinic within 4 months. They asked why, and I said because we didn't want to waste time for a couple years and THEN find out that there was an easily correctable problem. They smiled and began to work with us, after pointing out the fact that even before 35, her fertility levels were significantly lower than before age 30.

About 8 out of 10 of our friends where the woman got married after age 33, were seeing fertility specialists by the time they were 35. Some had more than 15 rounds of IVF to get 1 successful pregnancy. I'd estimate that conception cost them around $180,000 out of pocket. And years of painful shots, trips to the clinic again and again for checkups, etc.

LP 999/Eliza said...

Thanks, JC and APL. Blessings to your families.

The good negs here are good fun, Negs here sting but they help me along.

The man in question rejected game blogs as silly. He is divorced, smoker, lives 70 miles from me, all that key data mom left out. Meeting a man to please our mothers was no good for me. When rejected game blogs just to glance at them, I wished he'd read them.

OT. I went to visit my parents who did recover much better fro stroke and cancer. Pray for dad to recover from his stroke, pray for mom to bear the chemo and for her to not stir the drama pot, pray for me that my legal proceedings are granted in my favor.

It's been an emo month.At my little house; cold showers, toilet problems and no dryer doesn't really bum me out, I view it as saving some $$ on utils or camping, whatever.. The water heater tank, toilet and dryer are all on the blink but what I am upset about is that I missed out on motherhood. I am just not well enough for it in my 30's, so I am a dead end. No one wants a woman living in poverty at 33. Then again, I'm so obscure and a loner no one would ever notice me.

Before I forget, the best tip I was given around here was to not go hollow or crazy and just hang in there. Cope, etc.

Bob said...

o...k

RC said...

@LP Keep an eye out for a divorced man who was abandoned by his hypergamous wife. There are many solid beta men out there who'd find you a godsend, especially if they had custody of children. I'd look for such a man who was 38 to 45 who wants children (or more children) as, at 33, you'd still have a fair shot at bearing children unless your health issues are related.

RC said...

...engineers, quiet software types, tradesmen, first-level management, account manager-types - I could go on. These types can make for solid husbands so long as you have your hamster under control, which it sounds like you do.

LP 999/Eliza said...

As usual I made a fool of myself at AG. I have much to learn.

SarahsDaughter said...

I didn't see anywhere you made a fool of yourself, but I did get to say a prayer for you and your mom and dad, LP. It's always good to see you.

LP 999/Eliza said...

I should not have commented in the first place, alcohol and commenting never goes well. I am sorry. I have to confess what I did - both parents landed up in two separate hospitals 24 hours apart, both are ill, pray for them and myself to not go hollow.

The 'meeting' was a disaster, I was drinking, raging but showed up. The young man in question wants me to do things I cannot do with the $$ that he has no say over, he is a stranger from pittsburgh for all I know, so what if he is mom's friend's boy.

He trashed me for saying most women belong under the foot of a man, to crush them. If a feminist is so devout she is only lowering herself and she might benefit from a good crushing or plowing or smite. I will not waste dad's money. I lost my composure days ago, I was yelling, raging and completely ungodly. I threw a chair at him b/c he was manipulated by mommies. I despise it. I didn't want to finish the rest of the story but I knew I needed to. It's not like ISTJ's seek freindies. A loner forever.

The Finn and Texan and 2 others that I happen to fawn over or prize thankful that I met them only b/c I was allowed to be around at VP.

I see no reason for God to bless me - I have never been mistreated here or at VP. I think the majority knows I have more problems that I lead on about.

I did commit a absurd error in the um, exchange, I said, "you resent me for not kissing mom's butt and that you are richer than me, I'm poorer therefore what do you care to look at me and dare question me and dare worship our mom's?" Total epic drunken blunder. Men don't care about a woman's money or lack there of.

The good thing to report is that I walked to the place the mothers and him chose. I dare not drive drunk and raging. I am livid at the stroke, people stole my father from me, I am livid at the gambling the lies of chemo. Our water heater tank broke and no mother suffering from cancer and dad recovering from a stroke can't hack cold showers. When my beautiful patriarch I adore went down so did everything else.

Meanwhile, as a renter, I'm being held responsible to hand over $400 for a tank that I cannot do, money does not fall from the sky and I made that point to him. HIs family thinks we are rich, that is no longer the case. I am lower, lower middle class, the austerity I've been plunged into enrages me and I cannot be around anyone and I cannot comment when out of control. I hide when I am ugly and will always do so. Forever and always the outlaw without an out, the mental health case with no care and I am ready to end with the power of the pen anyone who hurts dad,

I cannot leave him, it gives me severe separation anxiety. This is awful regression and retardation of a 33 year old woman. I love him more than myself, I love Christ more than any fears of reprisals, the motherfuskcers can come and when dad goes I go. I'm checked out its why I'll never have anything in this lie of a life. Evil loves to kill families, kill my faith, break my spirit, Hell has me to deal with before heaven gates close. Evil met its match, greed met me and I threw chairs, tables and broke some windows at it.

This is all foolish, all of it. The law was not called on me, the law took pity on me, I took full responsibility for my actions and handled it. Both sides of the family want money, I say nein, I ain't got it. I took dad and walked away from family. They aint my kin and sending decoys is a bad, bad, idea. I am mental, pray for me to never cross paths with those who seek our harm. I am sorry.

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