Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Black canaries in the coal mine

It appears we are on the verge of Pat Moynihan part II: The Decline of White Marriage:
The Philadelphia-based Pew Research Centre study, published in The Atlantic magazine, suggests female graduates are being put in similar situation to that faced for some time by black women. In America, 70 per cent of black women have no husband and there are twice as many black women as black men with university degrees.
It will take time, of course, but there is no reason to expect that the white marriage rate will not eventually decline as black marriage rates have done, just as the white illegitimacy rate eventually rose in imitation of the black illegitimacy rate as Senator Moynihan predicted. History shows, and hypergamy explains, that civilized society requires men with higher wages and more advanced education than women. So it should come as no surprise to anyone with any knowledge of either history or Game that structurally modifying society to ensure higher wages and more education for women will tend to significantly destabilize society and solidify trends leading towards its eventual collapse.

Stories about how "most women eventually get married" are written by statistical illiterates with journalism degrees. It took 60 years for the percentage of black women who are presently married to decline from 63 percent to 30 percent, an average rate of 0.55% per year. 45 percent of black women have never been married by age 40, compared to 23 percent of white women. But since white women are roughly 25 years behind the trend set by black women, this indicates that about around half the college-age white women today will not marry by the time they are 40.

I'll have to do some more detailed research to provide harder numbers, but that's what the first casual glance at the numbers appears to suggest.

9 comments:

Houston said...

I began to notice this problem back in my college days (mid 1980s), and it became more apparent after I graduated and entered the corporate world. Most of the women I observed were at similar or higher economic status to myself. No chance of impressing them as a potential breadwinner. More than once I considered the possibility of dating down, but I had even less in common with working class girls than with their middle class peers.

It was almost a shock when I met my future wife. Here was a pretty, college educated woman who took me seriously as a potential mate despite my clerical job and lack of ladder-climbing ambition. And it helped tremendously that I had learned a bit of Game (albeit before I knew what it was, or had a name for it).

TLM said...

So a good investment strategy for the future would be to invest heavily in boxed wine companies that specialize in selling white zinfandel, petsmart for the projected increase in cats and cat accessories, personal pleasure device manufacturers, and publishing houses with a stable of writers dedicated to vampire porn. love to see some analyst on cnbc or foxbusiness channel makes those recommendations on air!

Daniel said...

"statistical illiterates with journalism degrees."

aka women. It is the circle of half-life.

http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2009/aug/18/women-dominate-j-school-enrollment/

Giraffe said...

So in 25 years, give or take, all society will be as dysfunctional as black society. That will be awesome.

JCclimber said...

This analysis has one significant flaw, in that it extrapolates the past and present into the future without acknowledging significant impacts to the underlying assumptions.

Severe economic contractions have significant impacts on male and female behavior, but especially female. Something as trivial as a minor recession has an effect on skirt length and fashion.

When the education bubble explodes, or even if it just starts leaking at a decent rate, this dynamic will readjust. It has already gone on about 1 year beyond what I thought it would.

Game will always be important, but having earning power in jobs that are vital in all economic conditions will also be sought after by the security focused gender.

Markku said...

this dynamic will readjust.

However, just looking at this one dynamic may be simplistic. The question is, when the women come back to us, will we want them?

Anonymous said...

That Markku, will depend upon age and how nubile they are. Women with short hair need not apply. Women at older than 40 better have some catfood socked away for their life companions.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of statistical illiteracy, what pool of data do you draw you conclusions from?

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