Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Baby bust squared

Generation X is less likely to have bred than the Boomers:
Women in their mid-40s today are almost twice as likely to be childless as their parents' generation, new figures show. The statistics look at how many children women have had by the age of 46 - when their childbearing days are considered over.

And they reveal one in five women who were born in 1969 are childless today - compared to one in nine women born in 1942.

Meanwhile two children remains the most common family size for middle-aged women today and the previous generation, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics. However whereas one in 10 women born in 1969 had four or more children, compared with around one in six women born in 1942.

There are no signs this trend is likely to reverse, with those who turned 30 last year typically having slightly fewer children than their parents and grandparents.
These are UK statistics, not the USA, but I have little doubt that the same holds true in America as well based on my anecdotal observations. My impression is that a reluctance to get married, and getting married later, is the primary culprit.

36 comments:

Res Ipsa said...

My comment is also based on an anecdotal incident. In 89 I was speaking with a sociologist who predicted that America was in for major problems because whites weren't reproducing themselves above the replacement rate. She was employed by the state doing social service work and recognized that a non-white majority was going to be a problem back then.

genericviews said...

Additionally, I have heard the advice given to younger women almost universally, "Delay having children so you can live and have fun". This advice especially comes from their mothers and grandmothers.

kurt9 said...

CRISPR technology combined with ectogenesis could make having kids more attractive to the more intelligent and capable people:

https://alfinnextlevel.wordpress.com/2015/10/15/grow-an-army-of-superhumans-using-affordable-artificial-wombs/

Robert said...

Artificial wombs? A re-reading of Brave New World would seem to be needed as a warning.

Robert said...

Artificial wombs? A re-reading of Brave New World would seem to be needed as a warning.

DSeidel said...

Several sources cite USA as 2.1 kids per couple. Barely replacement level...which is far from preferable for any nation. Every generation must have a larger population behind them to sustain it's economy. Aging populations (Japan, etc) have a huge, un-reversable problem; seniors are savers, not spenders. They are no longer contributing to retirement, so there's fewer people each year paying to support such systems, as well as taxes to support gov't & infrastructure. Nations that reject God (or godly principles) destroy themselves.

Kryten 2X4B 523P said...

Cost of living in the UK is also a factor. If there's two of you on an average wage you can barely afford to rent a place to live, let alone buy somewhere. Hence working couples putting off having kids unless one is a high enough earner to pay both the mortgage and have a SAHM. However, those on benefits seem to be popping them out every nine months...

Aeoli Pera said...

A re-reading of Brave New World would seem to be needed as a warning.

Have you ever actually witnessed someone heed good advice?

"Don't marry that guy, he choked his last two wives to death."
"Oh, then I won't marry him because I don't want to be murdered."

^ A conversation that never happened even once.

Student in Blue said...

@DSeidel
Aging populations (Japan, etc) have a huge, un-reversable problem; seniors are savers, not spenders. They are no longer contributing to retirement, so there's fewer people each year paying to support such systems, as well as taxes to support gov't & infrastructure.

Sentence one has nothing to do with sentence two. It's the fact that they're *retired* that places the whole Social Security ponzi scheme at risk, not that they're been tucking away money.

If every senior was spending their money like it was nothing, that wouldn't change the fact that there are far more drawing on Social Security than contributing to it - and that politicians have drained it significantly already.

SQT said...

That is somewhat eerie to read. I was born in '69, grew up in a four child household and had two myself. I know many women my age who haven't had any kids. Two of my three brothers have two kids and I have one brother who has three. Anecdotal for sure but I think we represent the current cultural trend.

If I could go back and do it over I'd marry earlier and have more kids- but like most women my age I was told to prioritize education and career goals. I feel lucky to have ended up having kids at all knowing as many women as I do who missed the boat completely.

ws1835 said...

My family is a prime illustration of this trend. All mid-class whites.

Paternal grandparents - 1 child
Maternal grandparents - 3 children
Bare replacement.

Father/mother - 2 children
2 aunt/uncle couples - 1 child
50% replacement.

Me - 3 children
Brother/wife - 0 children
Cousin/husbande - 0 children
50% replacement.

The extended family has similar rates of repIacement. In two generations, the combined family has shrunk to the point where there really isn't enough family to have a family gathering.


Laguna Beach Fogey said...

For the System, I think this is the desired objective.

I wonder, too, how much of this can be attributed to social demoralization and a sub-conscious desire not to have white offspring in an increasingly hostile non-white environment.

DSeidel said...

Student in Blue...
My point on seniors being as retired status, they are not spending at the level of the non-retired (greatly reduced need/want of goods & services), thus you have a segment participating minimally in economic stimulation.

2 different countries w/ same population (all things equal) where one has majority senior citizens will have a much retracted economy. (Japan again). It's axiomatic.

Student in Blue said...

@DSeidel

I don't even think it's true the way you detail spending vs saving. Regardless, It's still irrelevant to your main point - if it's true it's at best a tertiary point.

jay c said...

Most Gen-Xers I know had 1 or 2 children if they had any at all. The previous generation had 3-4. The generation before that had 4-6 and the one before that had 5-8.

Our navels loom larger each decade.

Cataline Sergius said...

These are UK statistics, not the USA, but I have little doubt that the same holds true in America as well based on my anecdotal observations.

That is most certainly the case for the Blue People.

But not so much for theRed People

The short story is that conservative Americans will take the life style hit necessary to have a bigger family. "This I have seen with my own eye, so I know the truth of it."

Progressives on the other hand would prefer to progress into oblivion rather than have more than their one allowable child before age 39.



Matamoros said...

I don't believe it holds true in the South. Traditional Catholics tend to have 6 or more. Among the people I see on the streets, 4 is about right for most.

At least among those Whites coming from a culture with strong feeling for their families (as the South), they are having more children then those with weak family structure or coming from single moms. The Yankees, down here, for example, are generally not breeding unless they buy into Southern culture and religion - and that's a good thing.

A person I know suggested that telling Whites they are going under is causing them to produce more children to confound this.

1cb69ad0-8825-11e5-aa02-3b3dc7ed62ba said...

A collapse in the gov't provided retirement system will inspire future generations to have multiple children. They will realize it's only logical to rely on multiple children to care for you in old age instead of the gov't.

chris said...

And hopefully feminists are breeding themselves out...

Sokrates said...

http://freedompowerandwealth.com

This phenomenon can be view in most of the western countries, with differences of course (France for example is doing better than Italy, Germany and others). But looking a Europe, the immigration form the middle East will “help”. But this is for sure not what most western people wish.

Eric said...

They are no longer contributing to retirement, so there's fewer people each year paying to support such systems, as well as taxes to support gov't & infrastructure.

If a system must have population growth to survive, it's already broken.

Kari Hall said...

My family lives the south, I have a 23 yr. old daughter who has been looking for a marriage partner of "like mind" since she was 18 with no luck. Every time she discusses her desire for marriage and family it is dismissed and the same lines are parroted, "You have time, don't worry!" "You've got to figure out who you are first." "You've got to live and have fun before you tie yourself down." On one date she had a "conservative gentleman" tell her he wanted someone with more experience in the world. The message is insidious and creeping in everywhere.

Bluntobj Winz said...

@kari,

It's never that simple. If "like mind" means brad pitt's looks with millions $, she's off base.

Perhaps you might encourage her to look at men 10+ years her senior, be feminine and loyal.

Bluntobj Winz said...

@open-id aol guy.

It's too late. If you don't have 4+ children now, they won't be old enough to make a difference, as the collapse of entitlements will occur far faster than anyone projects.

This is why the breeding gap is almost insurmountable in Europe right now. You can't offset the muslim population increases by breeding at this point. Look up "Grey Dawn" by peter G. Peterson. It was published in 1999, and at that point muslim babies were 40% of all babies born in the Netherlands and France.

It was too late THEN for Europe.

The only way forward now for Anglo populations is the crusades. For Americans, millennials and others, it will take men who have vision and game to keep a woman and have 4+ children with them. Otherwise there ain't much future here.

Jeff said...

Kari Hall - It's good to hear that your daughter is thinking about the long term. If I may make a suggestion - she first needs to demonstrate that she is the type of woman that a man would feel comfortable with long-term. Long hair, quiet and pleasant demeanor, no hint of anger, entitlement, or liberal point of view. Opposed to abortion, the welfare state, etc. She's interested in things that aren't materialistic or expensive for the sake of being expensive. Of course she's weeding out the men for these same general reasons as well. Only after she knows a man well enough should she be discussing her vision of her future family. Doing so any earlier will not result in interest from a (normal well-adjusted) man.

After all, why would a man want to start thinking about a family with a woman he barely knows?

Cail Corishev said...

Ah yes, another sensible young woman who wants nothing more than to be married and have babies but just can't find a decent man. It's an epidemic, really.

Jack Amok said...

Two of the he first three comments:

I have heard the advice given to younger women almost universally, "Delay having children so you can live and have fun". This advice especially comes from their mothers and grandmothers.
...
Artificial wombs? A re-reading of Brave New World would seem to be needed as a warning.


Hmmmm, are you sure the artificial wombs would give worse advice than the natural ones?

YIH said...

A major reason why is both cost and lifestyle, in many cities it's extremely difficult to live the 'tradional' (father breadwinner, mother and children at home) family structure.
A couple in San Fran is managing to pull it off, read how they did it.
Though they have since moved, he points out how difficult it is to even get rented at all an apartment with that lifestyle.
While living at that previous apartment, I'll put it bluntly, there is no 'margin for error' if he were to lose his job (H1b/outsource/tech company folds) they would all be in a really tough situation. Likely they would have to move immediately and quite some way away from San Fran or even California itself.
It's the same problem as Japan, living in small spaces itself will curb the tendency to have kids - yes, many apartments in Japan are (by US standards) that small. Now you know a major reason many Japanese aren't having kids, or even sex itself.

ajw308 (#98) said...

And hopefully feminists are breeding themselves out...
Feminism is a mental disease that is learned. It's a culture. If a feminist indoctrinates 2 people before she dies, she's at the replacement rate. With universities teaching what they teach, they're well over this rate.

Michael Maier said...

I have heard the advice given to younger women almost universally, "Delay having children so you can live and have fun". This advice especially comes from their mothers and grandmothers.

That's just enlightened self-interest. The wrinkled crones know what selfish bitch whores they've raised and don't want to babysit.

Kari Hall said...

Okay Gentlemen,
Thanks for all the advice, but I can see that I may have succumbed to a bit of solipsism in relating to this post and it may have come off as seeking advice or whining, not my intention.
I'm not new around these parts, my daughter has been raised Red Pill since she was 14, Cail I remember when you started your blog, I usually comment under the pseudonym Practicallyperfect. I obviously didn't make my point which is, for young people meeting someone with the same traditional values is exceptionally difficult in the current cultural environment. I've been told it's like walking through a minefield just trying to feel another person out, even here in the South. As I have said before nothing will be resolved until community is formed.

Cail Corishev said...

Kari, I was having some fun with you. No doubt it is more difficult for both sides than it used to be, just due to the numbers.

Also, I think there's a sort of feedback paradox (for want of a better term): when most women are horrible, the good ones become that much more valuable, so they're likely to set their own sights higher, seeing more men as beneath their own value. I don't know that your daughter's doing that, but it would be understandable if she is. And once you combine that with people telling her to put it off -- and I'll bet those same people are telling her she deserves the very very best because she's a good girl -- it would be hard not to let your expectations get skewed.

When most people were at least decent, I don't think they expected so much -- that's the paradox. They expected decent, but not spectacular, and that's what they usually got. And if they both worked at it, it was pretty good.

SciVo said...

@ Cail Corishev: And if they both worked at it, it was pretty good.

OT: I just stumbled across this again. Looks like a good recipe to me.

RambleAround said...

Part of the reason why the immigration floodgates have been opened

Kari Hall said...

I understand Cali, and you make a good observation. I will try to step back and see if this is what is happening. However I still see a need for community. The sphere has many who come and go, some because they get what they need and move on, but I wonder if for some it is because this is a very lonely road. It will be interesting to see the insights that will come from the sphere when Vox, Deti, Rollo, Ironwoods and Dalrock's kids especially the girls, get older. Rollo has written a piece I just haven't had the time to read it.

Cail Corishev said...

However I still see a need for community.

I do too. The courting/marriage process is supposed to happen within a community that provides the right incentives and taboos. That community would say things like, "Find a good man before you get too old," and, "Marry Jim, he has a good job and treats his parents and sisters well. What do you mean he's not exciting? Stop being a stupid girl."

We're going to need to rebuild that community as part of rebuilding Christendom. But as long as we live in communities that say things like, "Don't get married, you haven't even had an affair in Paris yet," we'll have to adjust for that ourselves in the meantime.

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