Monday, October 21, 2013

The wages of female education

Japan is demographically imploding and it's a great mystery to everyone who thought that educating women was going to create new prosperity there, not destroy the entire economy:
The number of single people has reached a record high. A survey in 2011 found that 61% of unmarried men and 49% of women aged 18-34 were not in any kind of romantic relationship, a rise of almost 10% from five years earlier. Another study found that a third of people under 30 had never dated at all. (There are no figures for same-sex relationships.) Although there has long been a pragmatic separation of love and sex in Japan – a country mostly free of religious morals – sex fares no better. A survey earlier this year by the Japan Family Planning Association (JFPA) found that 45% of women aged 16-24 "were not interested in or despised sexual contact". More than a quarter of men felt the same way.
The answer is pretty obvious.  The following is taken from a paper published in 2000 by Sawako Shirahase, entitled Women’s Increased Higher Education and the Declining Fertility Rate. The paper is more than a bit silly, in that she attempts to prove that the decline in fertility is not related to the obvious educational factor, but the unwillingness of Japanese men to do housework. This struck me as crazy, in that the only way my Japanese host-father would have considered helping out around the house would have been sending his mistress over to lend a hand. But the factual part Shirahase is attempting to explain away is sufficiently enlightening, especially considering the way in which the 13 subsequent years have exacerbated the consequences.

"Enrollment of women in senior high school increased dramaticalland by the end of that decade it even exceeded the rate for men by one point; from 1975, the advancement rate surpassed 90 percent and gradually rose to 97 percent by 1997. By the late 1990s, then, almost all young women entered senior high school after completing their compulsory education (junior high school). At the university level, the rate of women’s enrollment almost doubled between 1970 and 1975 (from 6.5 % to 12.5 %) and continued to increase slowly; between 1993 and 1997 the rate increased by 7 points. 

"Between 1965 and 1975 the rate of enrollment in junior colleges, which constituted an important part of women’s higher education in Japan, tripled (from 6.7 % to 19.9 %), widening the difference between the rates of advancement to junior colleges and universities—in 1975, 19.9 percent versus 12.5 percent. Later, enrollment increased in the form of a gentle curve. By 1996, however, the rate of advancement to universities surpassed that to junior colleges; in 1997, enrollment in universities reached 26.0 percent, as opposed to 22.9 percent in junior colleges. In this way, women’s attainment of a higher education increased rapidly between the late 1960s and early 1970s, and since the 1990s there has been a remarkable increase in advancement to a university.

"Throughout this period Japan experienced a sharp decline in the total rate of fertility. After a sudden downswing in the early 1950s, the birthrate continuously declined until the mid-1980s, when it began to drop rapidly, and by 1997 it fell to 1.39. In light of these findings, it is plausible to suggest that there is a relationship between the increase in women’s access to a higher education and the decrease in the fertility rate."

Of course, this is no mystery to the theoreticians of Game. As women achieve a higher level of education, their hypergamy cause them to increasingly focus on a dwindling pool of men with whom they are also competing. Those who cannot score an Alpha or a Beta tend to elect to remain single and devote themselves to their careers rather than settle for a Delta or Gamma as their mothers and grandmothers did. In reaction to their disdain, the lesser men are not only less attractive to these educated women, they are also less attracted to them as they learn there is no possibility of satisfying relationships with them.

Why is the problem more distinct in Japan than in the USA, where even more women are highly educated? Because Japan is a more rigidly traditional society and its people are less willing to embrace an equality paradigm that has already failed in the West.

Ironically, in light of the strong correlation between female education and demographic decline, a purely empirical perspective on Malala Yousafzai, the poster girl for global female education, may indicate that the Taliban's attempt to silence her was perfectly rational and scientifically justifiable.


Anonymous said...

A survey earlier this year by the Japan Family Planning Association (JFPA) found that 45% of women aged 16-24 "were not interested in or despised sexual contact".

This is depressing because who doesn't enjoy destroying Japanese Poon!!!!

Revelation Means Hope said...

I see stats like that, and in confirmation of my overconfidence, write it off that it is just because they haven't met me yet. I'll have to travel around more on my next trip to Japan. Heh.

My Japanese niece is a high school senior, entering university next year. She wants to be a school teacher. She has been a diligent studier since 1st grade, but is not super smart and is okay with that fact.

Her twin brother is doing poorly in school, after a childhood of coddling and playing a massive amount of video games rather than studying. The biggest problem is the coddling and the fact that he was allowed to never take responsibility for himself.

My father and mother in-law have placed some of their hopes on the girl, since she was studies and popular and got good grades. They are disappointed that she won't try to go for a high end university despite accectance already at a lower end university, which is about the best she will ever be able to score. The hypergamy is mult-generational. Wait until they find out our child is being home-schooled! I think their heads will explode in cultural disconnect.

The problem here is that the culture does not allow much flexibility. The young generation is checking out as they can clearly see there is no reward for hard work and delayed gratification for many of their generation, by looking at their parent's examples.

When hope is dashed at the personal level, interest in making sacrifices for civilization declines.

Eric Wilson said...

I wonder what Nick Kristof would do if he read this. I'd like to think his head would just explode

Miguel D'Anconia said...

You also can see the same effects in Taiwan which has similar women entered the professional ranks.

Anonymous said...

"A survey in 2011 found that 61% of unmarried men and 49% of women aged 18-34 were not in any kind of romantic relationship, a rise of almost 10% from five years earlier. Another study found that a third of people under 30 had never dated at all." There will be a huge market for sexbots in Japan once they become commercially available.

Anonymous said...

Benjamin Franklin on the education of girls: Addition, Subtraction, and Multiplication

Anonymous said...

Japanese girls are pretty. Japanese women, not so much. As for Japanese men... well, most of them have turned themselves into women. So I can't blame either sex for not wanting much to do with the other.

Laguna Beach Fogey said...

The trick is, how to set up and implement a Taliban-style movement here. Good luck with that.

Even the Muslims of my acquaintance are gung-ho about their daughters attending college and grad school and becoming professionals. But it might work for them, as their culture is more "rigidly traditional" to say the least.

Jason773 said...

IME it's not that Japanese women really have a disdain for sex and intimacy, but rather Japanese men are by and large the world's biggest beta/omegas (roissy definitions) on the planet that have as much sex appeal as pimple. I've not only slept with three 'introverted' and 'sexually disinterested' Japanese girls who were studying in America, but I made them practically fall in love with me (a white American male) in the span of a week while turning them into nymphos. The Japanese men are the root of the problem (but I suppose we could say the same about American men), but for the few Japanese guys who actually have game and presence over there, they clean up like no ones business.

Anonymous said...

I love that 61% of unmarried men but 49% of unmarried women aren't in romantic relationships. That means 40% of unmarried females in a romantic relationship are in a polygamous romantic relationship.

JS123 said...

The Shakers went extinct because they practiced celibacy. Duh, no one could have forseen that. (In a way, you have to give them some credit for sticking to their guns right up to the very end.) Let's call values that lead to the extinction of those who carry them Deathwish Values. Pretty much, all the tenets of liberalism are Deathwish Values. Think about it, which values will lead to survival of ones kind, and which will lead to its ultimate demise? Loyalty vs. impartial non-discrimination? Abortion, birth control vs. fertility? Defense vs. open borders?

Anonymous said...

Any time you talk about Asia you MUST include consideration of it's higher estrogen levels in both men and women, imo. Even educated Japanese women are somewhat bearable (and slim) because of this and still have some natural submission in them. Unfortunately it makes the men far less attractive to women.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps when all the pickup artists are dead, the world will be a better place for relationships.

sconzey said...


Perhaps. Other possibilities are:
a) they're lying (never to be ruled out in a self-reported survey)
b) they're in relationships with men outside the upper end of the age-range

Apropos is this excellent and entertaining VICE Guide to the Japanese Love Industry. Not safe for work, or small children.

Matamoros said...

Here's a girl who has now been corrupted by Mensa.

VD said...

Perhaps when all the pickup artists are dead, the world will be a better place for relationships.

At this rate, pretty soon only the pickup artists will be having relationships.

Magson said...

@Matamoros -- I don't see what the big deal about IQ tests are. When I was a kid I scored off the top of a test that went to 150, in college I scored off the top of one that went to 138. I scored high enough on my SAT's back when Mensa would still accept them as an IQ test for acceptance, but I'm also smart enough to know that I don't need to pay dues to a club so that I can know that I'm intelligent. I don't have an eidectic memory or anything, though I remember things well enough that I regard taking notes as a waste of effort. I'm by no means the smartest person I know, and I'm not talking test scores -- I'm talking people that in the course of our friendships over time I can see that they're head and shoulders smarter than I am. They don't need IQ tests or Mensa memberships either. They just live their lives.

tz said...

Singapore too, in fact Lee Kwan Yu said it was one of his biggest mistakes - educating (to the college level) the women.

I don't think it is education per se, but only "you can't laud it all". There will always be an image of a 30-something "mommy" v.s. a 30-something career woman. And I do intentionally say "Mommy", not "Wife". Sterile marriage won't help the demographic problem. Hypergamy makes it more difficult but we have responsibility for our wills - our frontal and neocortex to override the limbic system. And there can be "blue collar Alphas". As Roissy points out, it is more an attitude than actual status. The command was be fruitful and multiply, not abstain and sustain.

Hypergamy is a form or insanity. A woman can find a man who will love her, provide for her, they can have fun together, the families like each other, but instead wants to bang a series of cads. This is a disordered desire.

Like alcoholism or some other addiction or OC behavior or something else. In earlier times it would have been recognized as the irrationality it was. We killed rodents, not kept them as pets.

Maybe we need Hypergamous Anonymous.

But to return to the Mommy v.s. Career Woman - it doesn't need the Taliban to fix such (though it is easier - I would dryly note the irony that we attack "preachers" with drones and kill them for threatening far less destruction). It would merely need true equality. Not the government with women having some men with guns extract wealth from other men to give to women. Women can't even rob and steal on their own.

The Observer said...

TZ, can I have a quote on that? I'm a Singaporean born and bred for 26 years, and never heard anything like that. In anything, the PAP government pushed, and still pushes for massive education for everyone, and was a major proponent of abortion and sterilisation in the 70's in an effort to get women out of the household, as well as other measures to destroy extended families.

The closest thing I've ever heard him quoted on is that educated women should have more kids, not that they should stop being educated altogether.

Revelation Means Hope said...

"may indicate that the Taliban's attempt to silence her was perfectly rational and scientifically justifiable."

yeah, the mindhurt and feelbad will be strong with this post.

Whiskey said...

Sorry missing obvious. Fertility is a function of age of first child. Sarah Palin kids at age 25 vs one designer eugenic baby with fertility treatments age 39. Highly related to massive time wasted in education, including near age male peers btw.

Solution? Kill dross, shorten post HS education 2 yrs, post grad a year save Med school. Increase wealth by making energy dirt cheap ... so women can have kids age 25 not age 39.

Very simple, thus very hard, like perfect omlette.

tz said...

@Whiskey - easier. Make families (if they don't divorce) 20% tax exempt for each child with a refundable credit. So a family with 10 kids would get a check from the state equal to the man's income, while the Matrona kept the cubs in line. Mommies would then be desired if not actually respected.

Right now women can easily become barren debt slaves. They complain about the patriarchy but will sell themselves to Sallie Mae, and she is a far harsher Madame/Mistress than the most brutish male.

tz said...

For those reading this, Vox has done my archival work for me in the successor post to answer "The Observer", for which I owe him thanks.

I have various comments in reply to that post, but in sum, Asia has adopted the form but not the substance of Christendom, so, like the "ooga-booga" natives that strung vines in trees in imitation of the British telegraphs during their colonial era, have missed the point entirely and are engaged in kabuki or pantomime.

Also, Islam - because Mohamed was correct on family - will conquer all with the one weapon they have which we refuse to use - Mothers. If Children are our future, those who promote motherhood will be victorious almost without regard to any other policy. Even Putin has seen this. China still has its "1 (often male) child policy".

tz said...

I realize the irony between the title and my last post.

The wages of female education ... will not be able to pay back the student loans required to obtain it.

Anonymous said...

tz: Yes, Mohammed is the best model to look to.

Anonymous said...

Thank you once again for proving the sheer stupidity and hypocrisy of the whole Game movement. So the Taliban are your heroes now...

Did it ever occur to you Game guys that maybe female 'hypergamy' (assuming it actually exists) has nothing to do with educated women? Just look at the number of educated women who throw themselves at dysfunctional thugs and retards. Maybe, it has more to do with HOW women are educated---to hate and compete with men---rather than the fact that they ARE educated. Female education 50+ years ago taught them how to be effective wives and mothers. I guess you'd be happier with the Taliban though (a 12% literacy rate and a 57% infant mortality rate to show just how useful uneducated mothers really are). And while you're digesting this, consider the number of trailer-trash type uneducated females in your own hometowns: are they better wives and mothers for their stupidity?

But of course facts never bother fanatics, nor disrupt pseudoscience.

Anonymous said...

For those who may be interested, PZ Myers and his Horde are wringing their hands over this post.

Diogenes said...

WOMEN contribute vastly more to science than conservative Christians do. I've seen labs where everyone is a woman-- I've never seen a lab with more than one conservative Christian (and most labs have NO conservative Christians-- in the USA, "a Christian nation", science labs are full of Confucians and Hindus.) I've seen science papers where every author is female. I know of none where more than one author is a conservative Christian, and usually NONE are.

If there's one thing correlated with a broad range of societal ills, it's conservative Christianity. The Bible Belt is full of meth, drugs and pregnant unwed teenagers because that's what conservative Christian values teach: lie about what you're doing in secret, don't think logically, and don't take responsibility for your actions.

There is no scientific evidence that educating conservative Christians has any societal benefit. In fact, there's substantial evidence that it's harmful to society: as soon as conservative Christians learn to use a computer they're writing stupid things on their blogs, claiming that vaccines are harmful, denying global warming and evolution-- you know, the usual Vox Day stuff.

Wanna see the inferiority of conservative Christians? Look at the Republican congressman that the GOP puts on the House Science Committee. That's what they call their "intellectuals"!

I also like how scared, inferior little Vox refers to "the strong correlation between female education and demographic decline."

Vox Day wants to terrorize and silence women because they contribute more to science, more to society, more to academia, than conservative Christians do. He burns with envy and feels inferior to them. He should. They're smarter than he is, and in the USA, earning more.

So, to follow Vox's logic, the next time conservative Christians ask for an advanced education, perhaps we would shoot one or two to set an example to the rest. Oh wait, that would be illegal...

Reynold said...

Since Vox advocates that kind of reasoning, I suggest that he go does not look like Vox is contributing anything to humanity other than badly written xian books, a bad attitude and a computer mouse.

Oh wait....

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